Last Monday, the Canal Rural brought precious information to the stage of the presidential campaign of 2018, after the interview of Ciro Gomes in the program Mercado & Companhia. The first in the polls for president will be invited by the channel to a timed 10 minute interview. Ciro was the first and started talking about the importance of agribusiness to the Brazilian balance of payments, which, together with mining, has been paying the import bill for almost all the industrialized products sold here.
The first question was about the crop plan and the value of the interest rates that the Brazilian producer pays. In response, Ciro said that "the Brazilian interest rate is the most criminal in the world. And we have tried to give agribusiness and family farming, traditionally - and I say again, by merit - a subsidized interest rate, [being] paid the difference with public money in large volumes. The last time was 128 billion reais of subsidy, so that the interest rate that reaches the Brazilian farmer is minimally competitive. The industry has already destroyed. Even the BNDES has been destroyed and it is necessary that agribusiness be very careful, when it gives security to certain ideologies. Instead of using ideology, which boggles our heads, we have to ration with intelligence. Either Brazil subsidizes interest, or agribusiness breaks in 48 months! That is why my political economy is clear to guarantee in the right time, at the right volume and with the correct profile the interest rates that are necessary, subsidizing as much as possible. "
Asked about tax reform, Ciro Gomes began by talking about the problems of infrastructure for the flow of agricultural production, which considerably increase transportation costs, and pointed out the need to seek fiscal sanitation so that the State can invest in the reorganization of public spending: "What I want , the project that I have always practiced, is to associate the interests of labor with the interests of production: [this] is the key. And our enemy is speculation. In Brazil, today, 51,7%, that is, more than half of our budget, executed last year, was delivered for financial speculation. That is where the great conflict is that we have to hurt and for this we need to unite the interests of those who produce with the interests of those who work. "
Concerning the increase in crime in the countryside, speaking of the complexity of the issue, he warned people to beware of simplistic solutions that have been presented in the political debate, such as the promise of distribution of heavy weapons to the population. In addition to not solving the problem, this could increase the risks by making people in the countryside targeted as thieves more dangerous than the current ones in search of weapons on rural properties
Great interview, in which Ciro Gomes showed power of synthesis, making clear its proposals to the sector rural and what interests you will face in your future government. Agribusiness will be central in facing rents, with government incentives for expansion through subsidized credit and investment in infrastructure. In addition, the industry should benefit from the process of reindustrialization, which will nationalize the production of most of the agribusiness inputs, freeing the producer from the impacts that the dollar variation generates on its costs. All said by the pre-candidate in exact 9 minutes of 57 seconds, when he finished the speech leaving a hug at all.
So far, nothing new. Cyrus said what he's been saying for at least 20 years. The precious revelations came, a few hours later, in the program Rural News from the same station. In a slightly ironic tone, the presenter announced the interview earlier. After a brief summary, he pointed out that, among other things, the pre-candidate had said that "releasing arms to the producer" - and now points to the viewer - "can make crime worse." Sudden cut in the image and broadcast replay begins.
Back at the studios, with a chuckle the journalist warned that three seconds of the interview were left unused by the pre-candidate and addressed the channel's economy commentator, who appears live on a monitor in the back of the studio.
The analyst begins his speech by advising Brazilian farmers to distrust all the candidates who come to the Rural Channel making promises that sound interesting to the sector, since others have done the same before and did not fulfill them after they were elected. When he was warned, he said that he had noticed in Ciro Gomes's words "populism, slips" and "a vision of great, omnipotent, omnipotent government." According to him, "Ciro Gomes spoke of a State in the service of a National Development Project. Why, Dilma did it. Dilma tried to use the state in function of a National Development Project. You saw what you gave! "- at that moment, he points at the viewer. Following his comment, he says that Cyrus talked about price regulation. "Dilma also did that. She tried to regulate the prices of fuels and electricity. You saw what you gave it. "
Turning to the evaluation of the proposal presented for agribusiness, it says that " Ciro Gomes was also populist to the point of saying that Brazilian agriculture does not live without subsidized interest. Ledo mistake, Ciro Gomes : Brazil needs to spend less on the incompetent, ingrained, highly regulated government because, otherwise, Brazil will break with or without agricultural subsidy and the agriculture will go together! Because? Because the agricultural problem is not the interest rate. The interest rate is crippling for the agricultural sector, because the government spends more than it Ciro Gomes presented a bias to increase the size of the state wanting to be regulator of everything. "
Finally, the Canal Rural commentator presents his economic theory, stating that "the biggest fallacy is to think that we are going to solve things with subsidy. Do you know why? Every time the government lowers agricultural interest, subsidizes agricultural interest, industry raises prices three times more, and that interest subsidy backfires. This happened very clearly in 2011 and 2012, with the investments in FINAME [Financing Fund for the Acquisition of Machinery and Industrial Equipment] and agricultural machinery. Machines went up 30% and interest rates went down 5. Another important question: every time the producer obtains subsidized interest in the financial market, he spends more on hangars, insurance and consortiums than the banking system sells to him in a married way, than he earns from the interest subsidy. So he ended this subsidy business. We need [a] low interest economy naturally, because the economy is healthy and it will only be healthy with small, lean, productive, competent governments. "
Here is the incredible service provided by Canal Rural to better understand the theater of the elections of 2018. First, it is interesting to dwell on the economic theory presented by the commentator. According to him, the government should immediately extinguish the agricultural interest subsidy - which would have burdened the sector by only 1 billion reais in 2017 - because, receiving these 125 billion, producers would have more services costs banking and the purchase of machinery. In addition, he says that interest in Brazil is high because of public spending that exceeds collection, but for him, this does not occur because interest consumes more than half of the budget. The deficit is due solely to the size of the state. This is a reading that leads us to conclude that, definitely, Canal Rural's programming should not be so popular among rural producers. Recommending the refusal of $ 4 billion in subsidies, to save on the consortium that the bank manager will push the producer on the loan, should sound funny in the middle of the business that commands the most dynamic sector of the Brazilian economy today. As Cyrus well warned in the interview: "Agribusiness needs to be very careful when it gives security to certain ideologies."
The second highlight of the tragicomic commentary was the revelation of the deconstruction strategy of the Ciro Gomes , which will be followed with discipline by the media. In addition to the question of violence and Cyrus' refusal to sell false simple solutions, the commentator let out, in an eloquent flawed act, the speech that will be used to exhaustion. With every proposal, no matter what Cyrus says, the answer will be on the tip of the tongue: Dilma did it and went wrong.
The idea will be to repeat, until becoming true, that the developmentalism defended by Cyrus in his National Development Project is identical to the economic policy of the first Dilma government. By practicing the world's highest interest rates, with an overvalued exchange rate and by promoting a chaotic and uncoordinated subsidy program - which turned out to be immediate remittances from multinational corporations and applying for rents - it is hard to imagine anyone in good faith calling the government's policy Rousseff of developmentalist. It would be the first case in the history of developmentalism promoting deindustrialization, which demands an urgent record in the economics manuals, at the same speed that biologists register new species discovered in the Amazon.
The speech is already memorized. So rehearsed that they no longer need to wait for Ciro Gomes to formulate his proposal. In the interview with Canal Rural, for example, the idea of price regulation was not mentioned at any time. But this was irrelevant to the commentator, who already brings color and sausage text: "Ciro Gomes also spoke on price regulation. Dilma also did it. She tried to regulate the prices. [...] And you saw in what gave it, "he said with the conviction that only the great masters of the performing arts can express.
With the script duly rehearsed by the actors, the play can already debut. Beaucoup de merde pour nous tous!